Western Australia oat exports off to a very strong start for 2021
Total Western Australia (WA) oat exports year to date (Jan-Mar) are reported up 61.5% or nearly 35,000 Mt (see right and attachment). This is the fastest start in three years and well above the five-year average. WA is the largest exporting state by far with the Port of Fremantle (POF) accounting for the bulk of total Australia raw oat exports.
The latest data from the Port of Fremantle (POF) points to YTD exports of 89,337 Mt, up from 55,319 Mt last year, and the average of 65,846 Mt. A significantly larger oat crop this year has boosted the export potential.
Exports to the top 10 markets are up 61.2% YTD, with other markets up 73% YTD.
Looking at the Top 10 destinations, exports to China (accounting for 58% of total market share) are up 98.7% YTD (see pg. 2). China oat raw imports have slipped in recent years down to 222 ThMt in 2020 according to USDA estimates, but are forecast to climb to 350 ThMt in 2021. With Australia being the major exporter to China this is expected to see a focus for Aussie traders on this major market.
India and Taiwan exports are up sharply YTD. YOY growth to these two markets remains solid as they continue to expand their oat milling/processing activity.
Japan exports are up 37.4% YTD. WA slowed exports to Japan in recent years due to reduced oat production. Malaysia exports are down 5.7% while exports to the UAE, which looks to be sourcing more oats out of Canada, are reported at zero. Mexico imports are reported at zero YTD, but traders tell us tonnage has been sold for later shipment.
Philippine exports are down 35.3% YTD with South Korea (SA) demand up 84.7% YTD.
The current pace would put total 2021 Western Australia oat exports at 350 ThMt, up from 256 ThMt 2020, and well above the five-year average of 0.284 MMT.
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