COCERAL forecasting lower oat area and production in 2021, but still expected above the averages
COCERAL, the EU Trade Association, released their first EU-27 oat area, yield, and production estimates (see chart right and table pg. 3). Area seeded to oats in the EU 27 is forecast at 2,576 ThHa, down 2.6% from 2020 levels of 2,646 ThHa but 1.9% above the five-year average. Despite the drop, this is still the second-highest area level in the past 11 years.
COCERAL pegged 2021 EU-27 oat production at 7,905 ThMt. If realized, this would be down 8.2% or 708 ThMt from 2020 levels but come in 6% or 450 ThMt above the five-year average of 7,455 ThMt.
A look at major oat-producing countries is pointing to Finland's oat area down 1%, in line with what Finnish grower surveys are indicating. Sweden's area is forecast by COCERAL to fall 16.2% which is below what traders are indicating to us, a drop of 8% to 11%.
Poland area is expected to drop 5% said COCERAL, Spain climbing 2% and Germany up 2.6%.
COCERAL is forecasting oat production to fall 5.9% or 75,000 MT in Finland. Swedish oat production is pegged to fall 19.8% or 172 ThMt. If realized, this would be 5.3% below the five-year average.
Poland oat production is forecast to fall 10.3% or 371 ThMt in 2021 but if realized, this would still be 2.7% above the five-year average. Spain oat production is inline to drop 19.8% or 464 ThMt with Germany mostly unchanged from 2020 levels of 714 ThMt.
These are early estimates and could change when plantings are completed in late May. Yields are also a major determining factor in the EU-27, more so in many countries than changes in seeded/harvested area.
Moisture conditions across the major EU-27 oat regions are good to very good to start the 2021 growing season.