UK 2019/20 oat ending stocks cut but still remain historically large, oat prices however remain strong
AHDB released its latest UK oat supply/use estimates today.
2019/20 total availability of oats is relatively unchanged from the previous estimate, but 186Kt higher than in 2018/19, driven by an increase in production said the report.
Full season oat imports are estimated at 14Kt, 6Kt lower than February’s estimate, and 18Kt lower year on year.
At 534Kt, Mill and industrial usage of oats in 2019/20 is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast and on year-earlier levels.
The usage of oats in animal feed is expected to be similar to that forecast in February and 16% higher year on year.
Compared with year-earlier levels, more oats are expected to be fed on-farm, due to considerably larger domestic availability.
The balance of oats' total availability and domestic consumption is estimated at 291Kt, 11Kt lower than February’s estimate, but 138Kt higher than in 2018/19.
From July 2019 to March 2020 the UK exported 104Kt of oats, with full-season exports forecast to reach 125Kt, more than three times the volume shipped in 2018/19.
End-season stocks are estimated at 166Kt, 14Kt lower than previous estimates, 50Kt higher than last season.
Despite the high-end stocks forecast, UK old crop grower oat prices remain strong as millers fill old crop demand, looking for winter seeded varieties. Given current 2020 seeding estimates, oat supplies are expected to remain large in 2020/21. Dry conditions, however, if they persist, could reduce oat yields and the total oat supply outlook moving forward.