Global oat markets are expected to climb above the averages in area, production and trade said the USDA in their first 2020/21 forecast
World harvested oat area is forecast to climb 6.8% in 2020 or 2.5% above the five-year average (see attachment for detail). Area growth has stagnated over the past five years at -0.6% (5-year CAGR).
Oat are in the top 10 is forecast to climb 7.3% or 3% above the average.
World oat production is forecast to climb to 8.4 %to 24.317 MMT in 2020. If realized, this would be 6.3% above the five-year average. Production has posted very modest growth of 0.3% over the past five years, small yield gains offsetting lower area.
Production in the top 10 is forecast to climb 9.1% in 2020 with Australia, the US and Argentina posting the largest gains (see table pg. 2).
World oat imports are forecast to climb 5% in 2020/21 or 6.6% above the average said the USDA.
Imports in the top five are forecast up 6.7% or 7.3% above the average.
China imports are forecast by the USDA up 25% with the US up 5.5%, Mexico, Switzerland and Japan are unchanged.
World oat exports are expected to 5.4% in 2020/21, if realized, this would be 7.9% above the average.
Exports in the top five will climb 5.6% said the USDA, up 8.5% over the average.
Canadian, Chile & Australia oat exports are unchanged with Russia forecast up 233% or 0.140 MMT, the EU down 10,000 MT.
The USDA is forecasting 2020/21 Canadian oat end stocks at a whopping 1.094 MMT or 50% above the five-year average. This is nearly 0.400 to 0.500 MMT above most industry forecasts and 0.200 MMT above Ag Canada’s forecast. The USDA is way too high on opening stocks (too low on milling in 2019/20 and 2020/21).