CBOT oat futures have rallied 27% or $.69 USBU since the March lows (see chart right). Prices fell sharply in Feb/Mar as the impact of the COVID plunged global grain markets into major uncertainly. Funds/specs quickly liquidated long positions in mid-March to zero.
Prices languished until mid-April when the funds/specs returned to the marketplace, mainly as a net buyer.
Oat futures are now approaching the 5½ year high. Tightening 2019/20 Canadian oat supplies have to a degree supported the rally, but the bulk of the gains were fund/spec driven.
For prices to sustain the current uptrend the fund/specs will need to continue to add to their long positions. And that’s mostly what they have been doing in recent weeks. A close above $3.27 is needed to confirm the uptrend remains in place.