The USDA in their latest world oat trade estimates raised 2018/19 Russian exports to 0.075 MMT while keeping China oat imports at 0.150 MMT, forecast down 61.4% YOY.
The Russian export number in itself is relatively small, but it begs the question if this a new upward trend. Historically Russia has not been a major oat exporter, particularly due to the questionable quality of their oat crop. Traders I spoke that have done milling business in Russia indicated oat and oat product quality is not similar to what is seen in Western Europe and North America.
Offsetting much of the higher Russian export forecast is a 55,000 MT increase in imports to Norway. Much of the higher Norway import is due to the drought in Northern Europe in 2018.
The USDA continues to peg 2018/19 China oat imports at 0.150 MMT, down from 0.389 MMT in 2017/18. This is the first slow down in import in over eight years.
Mexico 2018/19 imports are forecast down 40.5% or roughly 68,000 MT. Canada will account for the bulk of exports to Mexico in 2018/19 and has already put in nearly 80,000 MT YTD.
The USDA is forecasting total US oat imports at 1.500 MMT, down 2.2% from the prior year. Canadian oat exports are forecast at 1.60 MMT, down 5%. The Canadian export pace to the end of January is running 3% higher.
Overall world oat exports will fall 13% in 2018/19 according to USDA exports. This is due in large part to drought and harvest issues in Canada, Sweden, Finland, and Australia. The four countries account for over 70% of world oat exports.
World oat trade based on USDA data is growing at a rate of 1.6% annually.