AHDB published the latest year-to-date (Jul-Dec) UK oat milling estimates today. Mill use in the first six months of the 2018/19 crop year was pegged at 0.282 MMT, up 2.8% YOY.
Use in the second quarter was down 2.8% compared to the prior year but YTD use remains on a record pace.
Oat stocks at mills remain large up 41.4% YOY. Not a surprise as mills have tried to acquire as much of the better quality oats given crop issues in 2018.
UK oat product exports, on the other hand, are down 5.8% or 5,025 MT for the first nine months of the 2018 calendar year. Total product exports are pegged at 81.640 MT (Jan-Oct) compared with 86,848 MMT last year.
Exports in the top 10 destinations are down 5.5% YTD. These countries account for 61.3% of total UK oat product exports (see table pg. 2). Exports to four of the five top destinations are down YTD (see above).
Annual growth in UK oat product exports has slowed with the five-year CAGR showing less than 1% annual growth.
The UK is the second largest exporter of oat products in the EU behind Germany with a 27% share.
Uncertainty continues to hang over the UK oat milling industry with the unknowns of Brexit.