Stats Can estimates Canadian oat stocks up 11% YOY. Milling use and oat product exports on another record pace

Posted on Wednesday, February 5th, 2020 at 6:15 am News Stories.

Statistics Canada today released its estimate of grain and oilseed stocks as of December 31, 2019 this morning. Total stocks of oats are up 11% year over year to 2.67 million tonnes. On-farm stocks climbed 9% to 2.38 million tonnes, while commercial stocks rose 30.9% to 288,000 tonnes. Stocks in all position area up 3% versus the five-year average (see attached).

Provincially, stocks are down 20% in Manitoba, up 20.1% in Saskatchewan, 6.6% in Alberta and down 30.8% in BC. Eastern Canada stock is up 23.9%.

Farmers were asked to include only crops harvested and currently in storage when reporting stocks of principal field crops. Crops harvested after the collection period for the December survey will be included in later surveys.

In looking at the oat supply/use numbers to December 31 oat milling use is up 13.6% and remains on record pace. Feed use on farms is up 3% with grain exports up 1.4%. Oat product exports are up 14.4%, another record pace.

We’ll look at the oat number in more detail in the evening report along with Aug-Dec oat usage data.

In looking at other crops as of December 31, 2019 Stats Can said total stocks because of poor weather conditions during harvest, a substantial amount of crops likely remained unharvested at the time of the survey. Farmers were asked to include only crops harvested and currently in storage when reporting stocks of principal field crops. Crops harvested after the collection period for the December survey will be included in later surveys.

Wheat
Total wheat stocks were down 0.5% year over year to 25.0 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks were up 1.5% to 20.8 million tonnes, while commercial stocks decreased by 9.6% to 4.2 million tonnes.

Despite a 0.5% increase in total wheat production at the national level in 2019, lower carry-in stocks (down 10.3% from the previous year to 6.0 million tonnes) were responsible for the drop in total stocks. Lower wheat exports compared with the same period a year earlier contributed to the decrease in commercial stocks.

Canola
Overall, stocks of canola were down 2.4% year over year to 14.3 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. This decrease was attributable to a 5.9% decline in on-farm stocks to 12.4 million tonnes, which offset a 28.6% increase in commercial stocks to 1.9 million tonnes.

Despite higher carry-in stocks (+52.9%), lower canola production in 2019, coupled with higher industrial use (+8.0%), led to the decline in total canola stocks. Canola exports were down 14.7%, or 641 100 tonnes, year over year, largely because of lower exports to China.

Corn for grain
Total stocks of corn for grain were down 8.1% year over year to 10.7 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks fell 5.8%, while commercial stocks decreased 14.3%.

Lower production in 2019 and lower carry-in stocks from the previous crop year were responsible for the decrease in total corn stocks.

Soybeans
Nationally, soybean stocks fell 9.4% year over year to 3.9 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks, down 14.2% to 2.4 million tonnes, were responsible for the decrease, while commercial stocks were unchanged.

Barley
Barley stocks rose 20.6% year over year to 6.0 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks were largely responsible for the increase, rising 19.5% to 5.6 million tonnes. Commercial stocks increased by 36.5% to 403 900 tonnes.

Barley production rose 23.9% to 10.4 million tonnes in 2019, offsetting record low carry-in stocks and pushing total stocks higher.

Oats
Nationally, stocks of oats rose 11.0% year over year to 2.7 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. Both on-farm stocks (+9.0%) and commercial stocks (+30.9%) contributed to the increase.

Dry peas and lentils
Stocks of dry peas rose 3.2% year over year to 2.6 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks (up 8.0% to 2.4 million tonnes) were responsible for the increase, which offset a 26.7% decrease in commercial stocks.

Meanwhile, stocks of lentils were down 14.9%. On-farm stocks decreased 14.3% to 1.6 million tonnes, while commercial stocks fell 19.9% to 180 700 tonnes.

The decline in the total stocks of lentils was attributable to lower carry-in stocks (-27.7%), higher exports (+18.6%) and greater domestic disappearance (+39.6%).