Statistics Canada (STC) released their March 2016 Planting Intentions this morning. Total area seeded to oats is forecast at 2.972 MilAc, down 10.9% from the 2015 final estimate of 3.337 MilAc. The estimate was in line with the average trade guess of 3.0 MilAc.
Based on average yields and area abandonment, total 2016 Canadian oat production is forecast at 3.101 MMT (see attached for detail). If realized this would be a 9.5% or 0.326 MMT decrease from the final 2015 estimate of 3.427 MMT. Production has averaged 3.260 MMT over the past five years.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan growers indicated they will seed combined 15% less oat acres, while Alberta oat plantings are forecast up 9%. Eastern Canada oat plantings are down 23%, mainly on a 46% decrease in Ontario and 14% drop in Quebec.
Wheat acres are forecast down 1.1%, with barley up 3.8% while canola is expected to drop 3.7%. The big winners this year were peas, up 16.3% and lentils up 30%.
The March Farm Survey, which collects information on crop planting intentions, was conducted from March 16 to March 31, 2016, and included about 11,500 farmers.2016 2016 Canadian Planting Intentions