Implied US milling & horse demand strong, off-shore demand doubles

Posted on Tuesday, February 7th, 2017 at 7:23 pm News Stories.

Statistics Canada (STC) is reporting raw oat exports are running 16% higher year to-date (Aug-Dec). Product exports, flake, flour and groats, are however down slightly.

Implied oat exports to US milling markets are up 11% YTD with US horse demand up 10% (see below). Off-shore exports are up 10% mainly on higher exports to Mexico (see attachments for more detail.

The current pace would suggest a 2016/17 crop year export of 1.820 MMT, which if realized, would be the largest exports since in 2008/09. We are expecting the pace to slow in the coming months unless oat prices rise further versus wheat and barley in Western Canada.

Product exports are lagging to the US, down 2.1% with off–shore demand falling 6.3% YTD. We expect the pace to increase slightly into the end of the crop year to finish near the previous record high.