Significant oat production problems in major global oat exporting countries is going to see major shifts in market share and trade patterns. Only two of the top five exporters, which account for 90% of global oat exports, will see gains in 2018/19, Canada and Poland (3% and 34%). Sweden, Finland Sweden the other three in the top five will see declines ranging from 15-61%.
Total oat exports in the top exporters are expected to drop 0.282 MMT. Oat milling in major global oat markets is forecast to climb 4.6% or just over 0.200 MMT in 2018/19.
This means other, non-traditional exporters, will have to fill the shortfall from major exporters. The only other alternative to fill the rising mill demand will be higher domestic oat use.
The overall impact of the export issues will be to steady to higher oat prices in 2018/19 in most global oat regions. The positive to this longer term is likely higher oat plantings in 2019 as oat prices are expected to gain on other cereal crops, including wheat.