Oat prices in major global oat markets continue to churn mostly sideways to lower as we move into Northern Hemisphere and Australia seeding. Prices have moved off multi-year highs reached in Sep-Dec. This is mirroring broader Ag markets where corn, wheat, and barley prices have been trending sideways to lower.
We are not expecting any “major” quick selloff in oat prices. Rather an easing lower as we move through spring seeding with few problems. A look at moisture maps shows few concerning problems in major oat-producing countries. There are some pockets of concern that bear watching but nothing that would on its own push oat prices higher.
Australian oat prices remain the strongest globally given the sharp reduction in oat supplies last year, and a long way to 2019 harvest (Nov/Dec).
We are forecasting at the moment a fairly solid recovery in oat production/supplies in major global oat producers, millers, and exporters. Supplies should, given average yields, climb to near the five-year average in 2019/20.
Should the recovery materialize, and quality is near normal, global oat millers should have adequate oat supplies in 2019/20.