EU-28 exports are up 3% year-to-date (Jul-Dec) despite significant production losses in major EU oat exporters. Total exports are reported at 608 ThMT, up from 591 ThMT for the same period last year.
Imports YTD are also higher, up 17%, This is one of the strongest YTD paces we’ve seen in years.
Exports from Sweden and Finland, who account for half the annual EU oat exports, are down a combined 33% or nearly 100,000 MT.
Exports from the other major exporters are down 2.3% YTD pointing to traditionally smaller exporters such as Estonia, Latvia, and Denmark filling shortfalls from the major exporters.
Total EU oat imports are reported 595 ThMT, up from 507
ThMt for the same period last year. Imports have in fact increased in eight of the top EU oat importers.
German oat imports are up 7.2% or just over 18,000 MT. This is likely from German millers aggressively buying early in 2018/19 due to large production shortfalls across much of Northern Europe. Belgium imports are up 12.5% YTD with Spain down 56%. Spain saw huge production increases in 2019 and has, in fact, increased exports by nearly 280% or 42,612 MT to-date.
Sweden’s huge oat production losses in 2019 have resulted in imports jumping nearly 50,000 MT YTD.
Barring a major shift from the current mostly good growing conditions We are expecting EU-28 oat production to recover in 2019, substantially improving the supply outlook for oat millers in 2019/20, and depressing oat prices from current above average levels.