Number of CBOT oat traders falls below the threshold for COT reporting

Posted on Monday, September 17th, 2018 at 12:35 pm News Stories.

For the first time since the Commodities Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC) began reporting net positions by category, oats were not reportable last week. Hence no COT report from us this past weekend. Before I get into my tirade on this subject, I want to make it clear I believe strongly in the need for […]

Oat production in major South American markets are forecast at the second highest level in the past 10 years and well above averages

Posted on Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 at 7:07 pm News Stories.

Oat production in Brazil, Argentina, and Chile, the three largest oat producers in South America, is forecast to climb to a combined 2.045 MMT. If realized, this would be up 14% from 2017 estimates of 1.796 and well above the five-year average of 1.649 MMT. These countries account for 98% of South America’s annual oat […]

Forecasted strong demand for oat related foods will see India remain a major global importer of oat and oat products moving forward

Posted on Wednesday, August 8th, 2018 at 8:49 pm News Stories.

India, the world’s largest importer of oat products behind the US and Mexico, is reporting total oat product imports up 14.7% in the first five months of 2018 (see below).  Raw oat imports are down 33% YTD but have been trending higher over the past five-years as more domestic processing comes online. Rising demand for […]

Saskatchewan 2018 oat crop forecast 7% below average as harvested area declines offset good oat yields

Posted on Thursday, July 26th, 2018 at 6:58 pm News Stories.

Saskatchewan Agriculture (SA) is reporting crops in the province continue to develop quickly. The majority of crops remain in fair to excellent condition, depending on moisture received over the past few weeks.  Some areas received rainfall last week that will replenish the topsoil moisture and help crops fill, including oats. SA is indicating 76% of […]

Oat production in major EU oat producers, traders & millers forecast to drop to near the record low in 2018, higher quality oat prices expected to climb

Posted on Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 at 6:03 pm News Stories.

EU oat crop in major producers expected to fall to historic low creating issues for oat millers Extraordinarily dry conditions across most of the Northern EU oat producing region this spring/summer is expected to produce the smallest EU oat crop on record.  Production in Sweden, Finland, Germany, Poland, the UK, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland is […]

US forecasting US oat production to climb 34% this year

Posted on Friday, July 13th, 2018 at 7:05 am News Stories.

The USDA is forecasting US oat production to climb to 0.964 MMT, which if realized would be a 34% increase over the near record low 2017 crop of 0.717 MMT.  Harvested area is forecast to climb 26% with yields up 6.6%. Yields are forecast to climb 7-31% compared to 2017 in North and South Dakota, […]

Three major EU oat areas of concern

Posted on Thursday, July 12th, 2018 at 6:41 am News Stories.

Sweden, Finland, and the UK remain major areas of concern for EU/UK oat markets. Late and variable seeding in all three, coupled with dry conditions throughout much of the growing season, has raised serious yield/production concerns.  Moisture levels have ranged from 25-50% and 0-25% below normal across the bulk of the major oat production regions […]

Australian oat production forecast mostly unchanged but dry conditions in east could lower final production

Posted on Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 at 8:05 am News Stories.

ABARES released their first 2018 Australian crop forecasts today.  Oat production was estimated at 1.121 MMT, up slightly from 2017 estimates but below the five-year average of 1.433 MMT. As currently forecast, this is one of the smaller crops in the past 10 years. Total Aussie oat area is forecast to fall 6.6% this year […]

UK oat milling for 2016/17 slightly off the record

Posted on Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 at 2:51 pm News Stories.

UK oat milling year for the 2016/17 was estimated by DEFRA At 0.522 MMT, slightly off the record high of 0.526 MMT reached last year. The final crop year estimate is slightly below most trade estimates which were closer to 0.530 MMT. Quarterly mill use in Apr-Jun fell from 0.134 MMT to 0.128 MMT. Oat […]

Japan oat imports up YTD but longer term trends continue to point to declining demand

Posted on Thursday, April 6th, 2017 at 4:22 pm News Stories.

Oat imports to Japan are up 1% year to-date (Jan-Feb) according to the latest Government estimates (see below). Imports from Canada are down 7.3% YTD with Australian imports up 86% due to higher domestic oat supplies. Longer term trends however continue to point to declining demand for oats in Japan with a five-year CAGR of –4.6% […]