The 2018/19 Canadian oat balance sheet remains very tight after the first five months of the crop year. End stocks are forecast at 0.527 MMT, which if realized would be down 33% from 2017/18 and 38% below the five-year average (see below). Two variables, exports, and feed use remain the major factors that will impact […]

Statistics Canada (STC) today pegged the 2018 Canadian oat crop at3.436 MMT, up 4% this month but down 8% compared to last year’s estimate of 3.733 mmt and 2% above the average. The higher estimate was not totally unexpected given reports of above average oat yields in major commercial oat areas in NE Sask and […]

COCERAL’s released their final 2018 oat production estimates today. Total EU-28 oat production is pegged at 7.883 MMT, down 4.4% from their Sept estimate, but is down less than 1% from last year and is on par with the average. The extreme drought conditions this year did, however, have a huge impact on production in […]

One of the worst droughts in history has reduced the Australian oat crop to the second lowest level in 36-year low and near the record low. ABARES today pegged 2018 oat production at 0.888 MMT, down 15.3% from last month and 20.7% below last year. The current estimate is 38% below the average. ABARES made […]

Saskatchewan Agriculture (SA), in the last crop report of the year, estimated 85% of the provincial oat crop will come in at the top two grades. While this is down from 94% last year, the 2018 crop is still well above the five and ten-year averages of 79% and 70% in terms of milling quality. […]

Demand for breakfast cereal in China is expected to continue to grow amid the urbanisation of the population and continued interest in Western eating habits. Breakfast cereal witnessed a 10% growth in current value terms in 2017 with forecasts calling for continued solid gains into 2021. The boom in cereal demand has seen China oat […]

UK grower oat prices are trading nearly £60.00/t more than in October 2017 based on corn return data. Smaller than expected oat production this year, that also has quality issues, is coupling with rising commercial oat use to push oat prices to the highest monthly price since May 2013. UK oat production is estimated to […]

Significant oat production problems in major global oat exporting countries is going to see major shifts in market share and trade patterns.  Only two of the top five exporters, which account for 90% of global oat exports, will see gains in 2018/19, Canada and Poland (3% and 34%).  Sweden, Finland Sweden the other three in […]

After multiple weeks of delay, many Saskatchewan producers were able to return to the field and complete harvest. Thanks to warm and dry weather last week, producers now have 90% of the provincial oat crop in the bin, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture’s weekly Crop Report. This is up from 72% last week. While many producers […]

A forecasted dropped in Canadian oat production of 9.4% this year, expectations of still strong on-farm feed use, coupled with forecasts of unchanged oat exports and 3.4% higher mill use is likely to produce an uncomfortably tight 2018/19 Canadian oat supply/use outlook. We are currently forecasting 2018/19 Canadian oat end stocks at 0.530 Mt. If […]