Forecasts for 2019 Canadian crop plantings are beginning to come forward.  The latest estimates from Farm Credit Canada are calling for a 16% increase in Canadian seeded oat area this spring.  This compares with the recent Ag Canada forecast of up 5.3%, and the average industry estimate of between 3-5% higher. Quite clearly, anything less […]

AHDB published the latest year-to-date (Jul-Dec) UK oat milling estimates today. Mill use in the first six months of the 2018/19 crop year was pegged at 0.282 MMT, up 2.8% YOY. Use in the second quarter was down 2.8% compared to the prior year but YTD use remains on a record pace. Oat stocks at […]

EU oat product exports to 3rd countries continue to show solid growth with a five-year CAGR of 4.9%.  Third country exports are to non-EU destinations.  These exports account for on average 22% of total oat product exports of the EU.  Exports year-to-date(Jan-Oct) are up 2.4% (see pg. 2). Exports are forecast to rise by 28% […]

The 2018/19 Canadian oat balance sheet remains very tight after the first five months of the crop year. End stocks are forecast at 0.527 MMT, which if realized would be down 33% from 2017/18 and 38% below the five-year average (see below). Two variables, exports, and feed use remain the major factors that will impact […]

Statistics Canada (STC) today pegged the 2018 Canadian oat crop at3.436 MMT, up 4% this month but down 8% compared to last year’s estimate of 3.733 mmt and 2% above the average. The higher estimate was not totally unexpected given reports of above average oat yields in major commercial oat areas in NE Sask and […]

COCERAL’s released their final 2018 oat production estimates today. Total EU-28 oat production is pegged at 7.883 MMT, down 4.4% from their Sept estimate, but is down less than 1% from last year and is on par with the average. The extreme drought conditions this year did, however, have a huge impact on production in […]

One of the worst droughts in history has reduced the Australian oat crop to the second lowest level in 36-year low and near the record low. ABARES today pegged 2018 oat production at 0.888 MMT, down 15.3% from last month and 20.7% below last year. The current estimate is 38% below the average. ABARES made […]

Saskatchewan Agriculture (SA), in the last crop report of the year, estimated 85% of the provincial oat crop will come in at the top two grades. While this is down from 94% last year, the 2018 crop is still well above the five and ten-year averages of 79% and 70% in terms of milling quality. […]

Demand for breakfast cereal in China is expected to continue to grow amid the urbanisation of the population and continued interest in Western eating habits. Breakfast cereal witnessed a 10% growth in current value terms in 2017 with forecasts calling for continued solid gains into 2021. The boom in cereal demand has seen China oat […]

UK grower oat prices are trading nearly £60.00/t more than in October 2017 based on corn return data. Smaller than expected oat production this year, that also has quality issues, is coupling with rising commercial oat use to push oat prices to the highest monthly price since May 2013. UK oat production is estimated to […]