On the surface Stats Cans forecasted 18.1% increase in Canadian oat plantings looks impressive and certainly as you can see below improves substantially the supply outlook in 2019/20 (see attachment). However, there remain several major unknowns that could reduce the improved outlook. First, the drought/dry this growing season has likely put a cap on yields […]

Statistics Canada released its 2019 Canadian Planting intentions today.  Canadian farmers anticipate planting more acres of wheat, corn, dry peas and oats in 2019 compared with 2018 while seeding intentions for canola, soybeans, and lentils have declined relative to the previous year. Oat plantings were estimated at 3.291 MilAc, up 7.8% compared to the final […]

The USDA in their latest world oat trade estimates raised 2018/19 Russian exports to 0.075 MMT while keeping China oat imports at 0.150 MMT, forecast down 61.4% YOY. The Russian export number in itself is relatively small, but it begs the question if this a new upward trend. Historically Russia has not been a major […]

Oat prices in major global oat markets continue to churn mostly sideways to lower as we move into Northern Hemisphere and Australia seeding. Prices have moved off multi-year highs reached in Sep-Dec.  This is mirroring broader Ag markets where corn, wheat, and barley prices have been trending sideways to lower. We are not expecting any […]

DeLauro’s Legislation Would Require Tests for Glyphosate on Kids’ Foods The Environmental Working Group  -WASHINGTON – Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) introduced legislation Friday last week to dramatically limit American children’s exposure to glyphosate, the active ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup weedkiller, in food. The bill would not only ban late-harvest spraying of glyphosate on oats but […]

EU-28 exports are up 3% year-to-date (Jul-Dec) despite significant production losses in major EU oat exporters.  Total exports are reported at 608 ThMT, up from 591 ThMT for the same period last year. Imports YTD are also higher, up 17%, This is one of the strongest YTD paces we’ve seen in years. Exports from Sweden […]

Forecasts for 2019 Canadian crop plantings are beginning to come forward.  The latest estimates from Farm Credit Canada are calling for a 16% increase in Canadian seeded oat area this spring.  This compares with the recent Ag Canada forecast of up 5.3%, and the average industry estimate of between 3-5% higher. Quite clearly, anything less […]

AHDB published the latest year-to-date (Jul-Dec) UK oat milling estimates today. Mill use in the first six months of the 2018/19 crop year was pegged at 0.282 MMT, up 2.8% YOY. Use in the second quarter was down 2.8% compared to the prior year but YTD use remains on a record pace. Oat stocks at […]

EU oat product exports to 3rd countries continue to show solid growth with a five-year CAGR of 4.9%.  Third country exports are to non-EU destinations.  These exports account for on average 22% of total oat product exports of the EU.  Exports year-to-date(Jan-Oct) are up 2.4% (see pg. 2). Exports are forecast to rise by 28% […]

The 2018/19 Canadian oat balance sheet remains very tight after the first five months of the crop year. End stocks are forecast at 0.527 MMT, which if realized would be down 33% from 2017/18 and 38% below the five-year average (see below). Two variables, exports, and feed use remain the major factors that will impact […]