Canadian oat production forecast up 15%, in line with trade expectations

Posted on Wednesday, August 28th, 2019 at 5:58 am News Stories.

Statistics Canada (STC) released their first 2019 crop estimate today. Total Canadian oat production was estimated at 3,953 ThMt, up 15% from 2018 estimates of 3,436 ThMt and 17.6% above the average of 3,455 ThMt (see attached for detail).  The estimate was in line with our estimate and the average traders were expecting.

Oat production in Western Canada is forecast to climb 14.6% compared to 2018 and 19.5% above the five-year average. Eastern production is expected to increase 20.7% this year but is mostly unchanged from the five-year average.

STC said Farmers across Canada anticipate producing less wheat, canola, corn for grain and soybeans in 2019 from a year earlier, but more barley and oats, according to results from the July field crop survey.

Despite dry conditions across the Prairies early in the growing season, timely rain beginning in late June and early July helped to increase crop health in several parts of Western Canada, notably throughout parts of Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.

A comparison of precipitation from earlier in the growing season to mid-July, during the collection of the July field crop survey, shows that moisture conditions have improved noticeably.

Results of the Crop Condition Assessment Program show that overall plant growth improved in many parts of Western Canada throughout July as survey collection progressed. Cool and wet spring weather in Eastern Canada resulted in poor planting conditions and contributed to slow crop development early in the season. During the collection period, the situation improved in southern Ontario and eastern Quebec.

The estimates are derived from the July Farm Survey of crop production covering about 13,110 Canadian farms. The survey was conducted from July 4 to August 5, 2019.

Final production estimates for 2019 will be released on December 6, 2019, and are subject to revision for two years.

On September 12, 2019, Statistics Canada will release modeled yield and production estimates for field crops in Canada. These data are derived from remote sensing, survey, and agroclimatic data sources.

Starting in July 2019, July model-based data for Manitoba were used to estimate yield and production. For more information regarding the July model-based data, please visit An Integrated Crop Yield Model Using Remote Sensing, Agroclimatic Data and Crop Insurance Data.