Statistics Canada released its 2019 Canadian Planting intentions today. Canadian farmers anticipate planting more acres of wheat, corn, dry peas and oats in 2019 compared with 2018 while seeding intentions for canola, soybeans, and lentils have declined relative to the previous year.
Oat plantings were estimated at 3.291 MilAc, up 7.8% compared to the final 2018 seeded area. This was in line with our expectations and the average trade estimate.
Seeded oat area is forecast up in all Western Canada provinces and expected to drop in Ontario and Quebec.
Stats Can noted that “The first iteration of the 2019 Field Crop Survey (March), which collects information on crop planting intentions, was conducted from March 1 to March 31, 2019, and included about 11,500 farmers. Farmers were asked to report their planting intentions for grain, oilseeds and special crops. Please note that data collection for the March iteration of the Field Crop Survey occurred after current trade issues related to Canola arose. All collection for this iteration of the Field Crop Survey began after such issues began. Statistics Canada is confident that intentions reported by farmers account for the ongoing situation.”
The above means there is a strong potential oat plantings could rise further.
We’ll look at the numbers in more detail in the evening report. The bottom line, however, depending on final 2018/19 feed use, is Canadian oat supplies in 2019/20 will be tight if yields and abandonment come in only near the average