Canadian Dec 31 oat stocks in line with the average trade estimate

Posted on Friday, February 3rd, 2017 at 7:22 am News Stories.

Statistics Canada (STC) released their estimate of Canadian grain and oilseed stocks at December, 2016 this morning.  Link to STC Data

STC indicated as of December 31, 2016, total stocks of wheat, corn for grain and barley were up compared with the same date a year earlier. However, total stocks of canola, soybean and oats were down in 2016.

Total oat stocks in all positions were estimated at 2.371 MMT, down 5.3% from last year’s s estimate of 2.504 MMT (see attachment for provincial detail). The STC estimate was on par with the average trade guess of 2.3 MMT. Stocks at Dec 31 have averaged 2.460 MMT over the past five years.

On farm stocks were estimated at 2.160 MMT, down 5.4% from last year estimate of 2.284 MMT. On-farm stocks have averaged 2.255 MMT over the past five years. Commercial oat stocks are estimated at 0.211 MMT, down 4% from last year’s estimate of 0.220 MMT.

Farm stocks were down 3% in Western Canada, mainly in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (see attached) with Alberta stocks up 66%. Eastern Canada stocks fell 22% this year.

The bottom line is, Western Canada oat supplies, mainly in Albert and Saskatchewan, are still in doubt due to the uncertainty over the last 20% of oat harvest that was negatively impacted by rain/snow. Current 2016/17 end stock estimates are forecast above the five-year average but quality and usability of the last 0.650 MT that was harvested remains uncertain. This accounts for roughly 20% of total Canadian oat production.

STC said total stocks of wheat rose 16.8% from December 31, 2015, to 25.0 million tonnes. The gain in stocks reflected a 15.0% increase in wheat production in 2016. Stocks held on farm totalled 21.3 million tonnes, up 21.2% from December 31, 2015. Commercial stocks were 3.5% lower at 3.7 million tonnes.

Canola stocks were down 9.6% from December 31, 2015, to 12.2 million tonnes on December 31, 2016. On-farm stock levels fell 12.3% to 10.3 million tonnes. Meanwhile, commercial stock levels rose 9.5% over the same period to a record high 1.8 million tonnes. Canola production was virtually unchanged from 2015 to 2016 at 18.4 million tonnes.

Total stocks of corn for grain totalled 11.7 million tonnes on December 31, 2016, up 3.0% from the same date a year earlier. Both on-farm stocks (+2.2% to 8.8 million tonnes) and commercial stocks (+5.4% to a record high 2.9 million tonnes) contributed to this increase.

Total stocks of soybeans decreased 4.3% from December 31, 2015, to 3.4 million tonnes in 2016 as result of a 17.1% decline in on-farm stocks. Meanwhile, commercial stock levels rose 16.4% over the same period to a record high 1.6 million tonnes. This overall decline was attributable to a drop in on-farm stocks from 2.2 million tonnes in 2015 to 1.8 million tonnes in 2016.

Barley stocks rose 11.7% from December 31, 2015, to 6.4 million tonnes at the end of 2016. The gain was attributable to a 12.6% increase in on-farm stocks to 6.1 million tonnes. Commercial stocks fell 9.1% to 211 000 tonnes.