US forecasting US oat production to climb 34% this year

Posted on Friday, July 13th, 2018 at 7:05 am News Stories.

The USDA is forecasting US oat production to climb to 0.964 MMT, which if realized would be a 34% increase over the near record low 2017 crop of 0.717 MMT.  Harvested area is forecast to climb 26% with yields up 6.6%. Yields are forecast to climb 7-31% compared to 2017 in North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Yield is forecasted to drop 8% in Iowa and Minnesota (see above).

The USDA made a major 71% upward revision to 2017/18 end stocks.  The change was a result in sharp downward feed use numbers.

The adjustment has pushed the  2018/19 US oat end stocks estimate to 0.599 MMT. However, if realized, this would still be 9% below the five-year average.

The end result of all this is, oat supplies for US commercial’s (millers and horse use) sourcing oats in the US will be more than ample.

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