The USDA is forecasting US oat production to climb to 0.964 MMT, which if realized would be a 34% increase over the near record low 2017 crop of 0.717 MMT. Harvested area is forecast to climb 26% with yields up 6.6%. Yields are forecast to climb 7-31% compared to 2017 in North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Yield is forecasted to drop 8% in Iowa and Minnesota (see above).
The USDA made a major 71% upward revision to 2017/18 end stocks. The change was a result in sharp downward feed use numbers.
The adjustment has pushed the 2018/19 US oat end stocks estimate to 0.599 MMT. However, if realized, this would still be 9% below the five-year average.
The end result of all this is, oat supplies for US commercial’s (millers and horse use) sourcing oats in the US will be more than ample.