Saskatchewan 2018 oat crop forecast 7% below average as harvested area declines offset good oat yields

Posted on Thursday, July 26th, 2018 at 6:58 pm News Stories.

Saskatchewan Agriculture (SA) is reporting crops in the province continue to develop quickly. The majority of crops remain in fair to excellent condition, depending on moisture received over the past few weeks.  Some areas received rainfall last week that will replenish the topsoil moisture and help crops fill, including oats.

SA is indicating 76% of oat crops in the province are rated good/excellent (G/E), up from 66% last year.  G/E ratings in major production regions are 82% compared to 68% last year.

The current ratings would suggest oat production in the province of 1.673 MMT this year.  If realized, this would be down 7% from the average and 16% below 2017 levels.  The 2018 estimate assumes average area abandonment.

Despite the lower production outlook in Saskatchewan compared to last year, 2018 Canadian oat end stocks will still be large in 2018/19 (see above).

Our current estimate pegs Canadian oat end stocks at 1.115 MMT, up 3.2% from 2017/18 forecast of 1.089 MMT and if realized, would be 23% above the five-year average.

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