Oat mill use in the eight major EU oat milling countries is growing at an annual rate of 5.6% based on the five-year CAGR. The eight major countries, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Ireland, UK, Denmark, Belgium, and Poland account for nearly 93% of milling activity in the EU.
Offsetting the mill growth is lower trending oat production in the group with a negative 0.05% growth rate over the past five years. Total EU-28 oat production provides no relief with a five-year CAGR of -0.07%.
Our analysis, based on oat product export trends and domestic breakfast cereal and snack bar forecasted sales, suggests the EU will continue to see solid growth in the milling sector and further erosion of oat production in all major EU oat-producing countries.
The major problem is oats are being priced as a feed grain, providing less than stellar oat returns for growers compared to other crops. Oats in the EU and globally are becoming more of special crop, which is going to see more contracting of oats to ensure adequate oat supplies for milling use.